The latest Renewable Energy Report 2025 from the International Energy Agency (IEA) outlines the core trend of the global energy transition over the next five years: global renewable energy capacity is set to double, with China contributing nearly 60% of that increase. Driven by China's absolute advantage in technology, scale, and cost, the global energy landscape is being reshaped at an unprecedented pace.

I. Global Growth Overview: An Explosive Expansion of 4,600 GW

The IEA projects that by 2030, global renewable energy capacity will have cumulatively added 4,600 Gigawatts (GW). This increment is equivalent to the total current installed capacity of China, the European Union, and Japan combined.

IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol emphasized that the core driver of global growth in the coming years will be solar photovoltaic (PV), while wind, hydropower, bioenergy, and geothermal will collectively contribute to a diversified clean energy structure.

Although the global growth outlook remains optimistic, the IEA has slightly lowered the worldwide growth forecast by 5% compared to last year, primarily due to policy changes in the US and China.

II. China: Record Growth and Policy Shift

China's expansion in the renewable energy sector is setting new historical records, contrasting sharply with the slowing pace of growth in the United States and other major economies.

1. Scale and Early Achievement: Wind and Solar Lead the World

• Capacity Forecast: China's new renewable energy capacity is expected to reach 465 GW by 2025, ranking highest globally. Should market and policy environments be supportive, this figure could accelerate to 509 GW.

• Target Ahead of Schedule: China is likely to achieve its 2035 targets for wind and solar capacity five years early, continuing its track record of meeting climate goals ahead of schedule.

• Policy Drive: The Chinese government has shifted its policy focus from the former feed-in tariff mechanisms to market-based auctions. This transition triggered an explosive growth in solar PV and wind power in the first half of 2025, aiming to promote and facilitate grid connection driven by market forces.

2. PV Dominance: The Core of 80% Growth

Over the next five years, solar PV will account for approximately 80% of the increase in global renewable energy capacity, solidifying its position as the lowest-cost and most dynamic technology in the energy transition.

III. Developed Economies: Slowing Growth and Policy Constraints

In contrast, renewable energy growth forecasts for the US and Europe face challenges:

Region	Growth Trend	Primary Reasons
United States	2025 growth forecast cut by nearly 50%	Early cancellation of federal tax credits, new import restrictions, suspension of offshore wind leasing, and limits on wind and solar development on federal land.
European Union	Projected 2025 capacity addition down 1% from 2024	Despite long-term goals, facing short-term challenges like complex permitting processes and slow grid upgrade pace.

Policy uncertainty, particularly the changes in US tax incentives and trade restrictions, is the primary factor contributing to the slowdown in these traditional clean energy pioneers.

IV. Emerging Markets: New Growth Poles Driven by Low Cost

Emerging and developing economies in Asia, the Middle East, and Africa are becoming new growth poles for global renewable energy.

• Core Drivers: The dramatic decline in the cost of global clean energy technologies (especially solar PV panel prices, which have dropped by over 80% in a decade), coupled with new auction schemes and higher energy targets introduced by national governments.

• Chinese Export Contribution: According to a report by the energy think tank Ember, in August 2025, China's clean technology exports reached an all-time high of $20 billion, with half of this exported to emerging markets.

  • Exports to ASEAN countries grew by 75%.

  • Exports to Africa nearly doubled.

The massive, low-cost exports of electric vehicles, batteries, and solar panels are powerfully supporting the strong global demand, particularly in emerging markets, for affordable energy and electrification technologies.

Conclusion: The Chinese Model Profoundly Impacts Global Structure

In summary, China is not only the world's largest renewable energy market but also the key driver and cost-setter of the global energy transition.

Its vast industrial scale, unparalleled cost advantage, and large-scale export of clean technologies are accelerating the global shift from traditional fossil fuels to clean energy. Over the next five years, China's energy development model and market structure will have a profound and irreversible impact on the structure and dynamics of the global energy market.